A respond to Migkillertwo

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  • http://andrewfinden.com/findothinks/ AndrewFinden

    Your central argument against the Cosmological Argument is still flawed. You are making the assumption that we can only say something could possibly be different if we can show an example where it actually is different, but this is unjustified – we don't need to 'know' that they can to consider it possible. We do need to know it can't in order to consider it impossible or irrelevant. When there are physicists and mathematicians suggesting how it could have been different – showing contingency – then the onus is on you to demonstrate that it could not have been different if we are to eliminate the possibility that it could have been different (you say you're allowing the possibility, but in practice you dismiss it by asserting its irrelevance – which is little different to saying that we must 'know' first). Simply dismissing philosophy like that is unjustified.

    In regards to the dice – the probability of a an event, if it is a chance event like dice, doesn't change after the fact. The probability of getting a 6 with a die is 1/6 before, during and after the throw (whether you predicted it before hand or not). The only way you get a 1/1 is by (like above) demonstrating that it could not have been any other way (which you are far from doing with the universe!)

    • http://www.godless.biz/ askegg

      "You are making the assumption that we can only say something could possibly be different if we can show an example where it actually is different, but this is unjustified."

      Really? Did you even listen to the video, or did your mind shut down as soon as I mentioned "Kalam"?

      In fact I specifically stated that I "was NOT ruling out the possibility of multiple universe" and made the observation that we cannot know if this is actually the case without supporting evidence. Any dingbat can come up with logically non-contradictory ideas, but this does not automatically make them a reality – something you have do not seem to be able to grasp.

      "…then the onus is on you to demonstrate that it could not have been different if we are to eliminate the possibility."

      Sorry – the burden of proof is on those making the claims. I expect you already know this, or simply don't care.

      Also, I am surprised by your assertion I am required to prove a negative, given your blog posts on the matter -> http://andrewfinden.com/findothinks/2010/11/provi

      "you say you're allowing the possibility, but in practice you dismiss it by asserting its irrelevance"

      Now you are contradicting your earlier statement "we don't need to 'know' that they can to consider it possible" – implying I think it is impossible. Nevertheless, if we cannot distinguish the possibility from nothing at all, then who what relevance does it have? Seriously?

      "….which is little different to saying that we must 'know' first"

      Please point to a single sentence, tweet, of video where I have said anything remotely close to that.

      "…the probability of a an event, if it is a chance event like dice, doesn't change after the fact.

      Bzzzzt. Wrong, and this is your (and many others) fatal mistake. Once you roll the die you cannot do that particular roll again. Ever. It's done. The result is known and fixed. No quantity of future rolls will ever change the result of that trial. Probabilities only work into the future – the past is set and fixed.

      (I really must finish my post of determinism)

      • http://andrewfinden.com/findothinks/ AndrewFinden

        In fact I specifically stated that I "was NOT ruling out the possibility of multiple universe" and made the observation that we cannot know if this is actually the case without supporting evidence.

        And my point, which you appear to have missed, is that in demanding we first 'know' you are in practice ruling out considering it a possibility. Are you not arguing that unless you can demonstrate something it's irrelevant?

        Any dingbat can come up with logically non-contradictory ideas, but this does not automatically make them a reality – something you have do not seem to be able to grasp.

        Again – we don't need to know that other possibilities are actually realised, we simply acknowledge that it could have been different. I have more respect for the physicists who posit the other possibilities to call them dingbats.

        Sorry – the burden of proof is on those making the claims. I expect you already know this, or simply don't care.

        Which claim did I make? That the universe might have been otherwise? Do I really need to you point to the work of the physicists who recognise this?

        Now you are contradicting your earlier statement "we don't need to 'know' that they can to consider it possible" – implying I think it is impossible.

        No, no contradiction, for what I wrote earlier was the same point I was making here. Whether you think it impossible is actually beside the point – you appear to be treating it as so (as dismissively irrelevant) until shown that another different universe can be examined.

        Nevertheless, if we cannot distinguish the possibility from nothing at all, then who what relevance does it have? Seriously?

        You seem to be getting tangled up in ontology still. Just because you haven't seen a realisation of any possibilities is no reason to discard them as possibilities.

        Please point to a single sentence, tweet, of video where I have said anything remotely close to that.

        This video @ 2:37

        Bzzzzt. Wrong, and this is your (and many others) fatal mistake. Once you roll the die you cannot do that particular roll again. Ever. It's done. The result is known and fixed. No quantity of future rolls will ever change the result of that trial. Probabilities only work into the future – the past is set and fixed.

        Of course no future rolls will change the actual result – but the odds for that roll are not changed simply because it's happened – the 1 of it having happened is still in 6 as it could just as easily have been any of the six numbers – if it was chance. The ONLY way to avoid this is to posit that it landed on 6 necessarily. It all comes back to necessity, and you're ignoring that.

        Btw, I forget if you ever told me what you're degree is in – are you a mathematician? I only ask, as I am not, but I did speak to one this week, and he told the me that the probability of a chance event like rolling a die is the same before, during and after the event -so who am I to believe? – that's not a fallacious appeal to authority either – it's a legitimate one. He could be wrong,after all (however his argument makes more logical sense than yours does, to my mind). That an event happened is not to say it had to happen that way – unless you are a strict determinist?

        (I really must finish my post of determinism)

        From what I read here, you'll be arguing for it I gather?

        • http://andrewfinden.com/findothinks/ AndrewFinden

          No, no contradiction, for what I wrote earlier was the same point I was making here. Whether you think it impossible is actually beside the point – you appear to be treating it as so (as dismissively irrelevant) until shown that another different universe can be examined.

          Having thought about this while waiting to practice curtain calls this evening (the glamour of the stage!) I realise that I'm overstating the point and in so doing muddying the point. Forget talk of impossible – I recognise that we both acknowledge other possibilities; the issue seems to be whether they are relevant or not, yeah? You're saying, that unless I can demonstrate them as actual (via comparison etc.) then they are irrelevant to the issue. I'm saying that I don't need to demonstrate realisation of possibilities for them to be factored it.The only way one can discard other possibilities is to posit that the outcome was necessary (which is, of course, highly deterministic in this case).

          From what you've argued – and please, if this is not the case say so (I am actually trying to understand your argument, after all) – you seem to say that the probability of this universe is 1/1 because it's here – once it's here, other theoretical possibilities are irrelevant, and anyway, we don't even know if they could even be realised.

          I've responded that if an event is random, then before, during and after the fact, the probability remains the same (e.g. for a die, 1/6) unless you can show why the outcome was necessary (and that it happened does not demonstrate such necessity), I've also responded that we don't need to show actualised possibilities to consider them (and likewise, consider them we must unless we show necessity).

          Unless I've misunderstood you, or you've got something new to counter that with, I suspect we've come to an impasse. Don't you think? (in other words – enough of the he said / she said business.. I realise I'm as much at fault on that point.. but let's talk about what we mean and seek to understand rather than jump on eachother with malicious glee! Ok?)

      • http://andrewfinden.com/findothinks/ AndrewFinden

        Also, I am surprised by your assertion I am required to prove a negative,

        I'm not asking you to prove a negative, I'm asking you to demonstrate that the universe is necessary and not contingent, as this is the only way you can call other possibilities irrelevant and calculate the posterior probability of 1/1.


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